East Bay Market Update - May 2026

Thinking of buying or selling a home in Berkeley?

At Calia Homes, we specialize in helping East Bay clients navigate the Berkeley real estate market with confidence. Whether you're a first-time buyer searching for the perfect home near the Gourmet Ghetto or a longtime homeowner preparing to sell in the Elmwood or Northbrae neighborhoods, our experienced Berkeley Realtors offer trusted guidance, local expertise, and a people-first approach. With decades of experience and a reputation built on referrals, we’re here to help you make smart, successful real estate decisions in Piedmont and the surrounding East Bay communities.

The New Reality of East Bay Home Insurance

If you’ve opened a renewal notice recently and done a double-take at the premium, you’re not alone. California home insurance rates have risen approximately 16% since 2023, and projections suggest another 16% increase by the end of 2026—a cumulative rise of about 34% over three years.. For East Bay homeowners, this isn’t abstract; our hills and ridgelines are where insurers have been most aggressive with non-renewals. The Geography of Risk In the East Bay, insurance pressure is highest in the neighborhoods closest to open canyon vegetation. Insurers have long memories; they still model risk based on the geography of the 1991 firestorm. For high-value properties, the stakes are compounded by construction costs, which have climbed more than 44% over five years.. Why the Market is Shifting Historically, California’s regulations prevented insurers from pricing risk accurately. When wildfire losses accelerated, carriers couldn't adjust premiums to reflect exposure, leading many to stop writing new business entirely. This pushed thousands onto the FAIR Plan, which grew 276% between 2018 and 2024.. The Market is Reopening Commissioner Lara’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy is changing the terms. In exchange for using modern risk modeling, carriers must write more policies in wildfiredistressed areas. Expert Insight: A Strategy for the New Market We asked insurance broker Jorge Mancheno of Mancheno Insurance how homeowners should navigate the new landscape. He suggests that "shopping around" has taken on a new meaning: “In this volatile market, a single quote is no longer enough —you need a strategy. I advise clients to cast a wide net and insist that their agent provide a full report of declinations alongside any accepted quotes. This 'paper trail' is vital; it proves you’ve exhausted the private market, often a requirement for FAIR Plan eligibility. Furthermore, having a backup quote in hand is your best defense against 'capacity constraints'—where a carrier unexpectedly hits their limit for a specific zip code and stops honoring new quotes overnight. In 2026, redundancy is your greatest form of insurance.” We are already seeing the impact: Travelers announced in April 2026 it is rejoining the California market. AAA filed for an 11.2% average increase, but individual results vary wildly. Depending on a home’s specific "risk score," some premiums may drop while others could spike significantly.. The Berkeley "EMBER" Ordinance Locally, Berkeley is leading the state in proactive mitigation. The city’s EMBER ordinance, effective January 1, 2026, imposes "Zone Zero" requirements on roughly 1,400 homes in the Grizzly Peak and Panoramic Hill areas. By removing flammable materials within five feet of structures, some homeowners are already reporting insurance discounts. We expect that other localities will shortly follow suit. Next Steps 1.Request Your Risk Score: Carriers must provide the wildfire score they use to rate your home. 2.Audit Credits: Upgrades like fire-resistant vents can trigger discounts of up to 12.5%. 3.Re-shop the Market: If you are on the FAIR Plan, new private options may have opened in your zip code this spring. We are already seeing the impact: Travelers announced in April 2026 it is rejoining the California market. AAA filed for an 11.2% average increase, but individual results vary wildly. Depending on a home’s specific "risk score," some premiums may drop while others could spike significantly.. The Berkeley "EMBER" Ordinance Locally, Berkeley is leading the state in proactive mitigation. The city’s EMBER ordinance, effective January 1, 2026, imposes "Zone Zero" requirements on roughly 1,400 homes in the Grizzly Peak and Panoramic Hill areas. By removing flammable materials within five feet of structures, some homeowners are already reporting insurance discounts. We expect that other localities will shortly follow suit. Next Steps 1.Request Your Risk Score: Carriers must provide the wildfire score they use to rate your home. 2.Audit Credits: Upgrades like fire-resistant vents can trigger discounts of up to 12.5%. 3.Re-shop the Market: If you are on the FAIR Plan, new private options may have opened in your zip code this spring. We are already seeing the impact: Travelers announced in April 2026 it is rejoining the California market. AAA filed for an 11.2% average increase, but individual results vary wildly. Depending on a home’s specific "risk score," some premiums may drop while others could spike significantly.. The Berkeley "EMBER" Ordinance Locally, Berkeley is leading the state in proactive mitigation. The city’s EMBER ordinance, effective January 1, 2026, imposes "Zone Zero" requirements on roughly 1,400 homes in the Grizzly Peak and Panoramic Hill areas. By removing flammable materials within five feet of structures, some homeowners are already reporting insurance discounts. We expect that other localities will shortly follow suit. Next Steps 1.Request Your Risk Score: Carriers must provide the wildfire score they use to rate your home. 2.Audit Credits: Upgrades like fire-resistant vents can trigger discounts of up to 12.5%. 3.Re-shop the Market: If you are on the FAIR Plan, new private options may have opened in your zip code this spring. We are already seeing the impact: Travelers announced in April 2026 it is rejoining the California market. AAA filed for an 11.2% average increase, but individual results vary wildly. Depending on a home’s specific "risk score," some premiums may drop while others could spike significantly.. The Berkeley "EMBER" Ordinance Locally, Berkeley is leading the state in proactive mitigation. The city’s EMBER ordinance, effective January 1, 2026, imposes "Zone Zero" requirements on roughly 1,400 homes in the Grizzly Peak and Panoramic Hill areas. By removing flammable materials within five feet of structures, some homeowners are already reporting insurance discounts. We expect that other localities will shortly follow suit. Next Steps 1.Request Your Risk Score: Carriers must provide the wildfire score they use to rate your home. 2.Audit Credits: Upgrades like fire-resistant vents can trigger discounts of up to 12.5%. 3.Re-shop the Market: If you are on the FAIR Plan, new private options may have opened in your zip code this spring.